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 Extra: Scouting Penn State
October 12, 2005
By Ira Schoffel for MCSPOLL.com
After watching Joe Paterno's club sprint out to a 6-0 start, many members of the national media have proclaimed Penn State as the surprise team of the 2005 season.
Those comments are certainly understandable. The Nittany Lions had posted losing seasons in four of the past five years, and they were 4-7 last season.
But one member of the Master Coaches Survey is not the least bit surprised. Master Coach George Welsh has long had a keen interest in Paterno's program, and he fully expected his old friend to field one of the country's finest teams this season.
"They've got nine starters back from a defense that did not allow more than 21 points in a game last year," Welsh said. "That's why I thought they were going to be very good. And now they've got those two or three guys on offense that have made a difference."
Welsh pays closer attention to the Nittany Lions than most because he served as an assistant on Paterno's staff there early in his career. Welsh also hired Paterno's son Jay as a graduate assistant coach at Virginia in the early 1990s.
So while others were predicting that Penn State would be exposed last week by Ohio State, Welsh gave the Lions a good chance of pulling off the upset.
"I think Penn State was underrated," Welsh said. "They've got some great skill kids -- those freshmen are doing very well."
With the help from the new blood on offense -- most notably freshmen Derrick Williams and Deon Butler -- the Nittany Lions are averaging 33.3 points per game. That's up 16 points from last season.
They also are getting solid quarterback play from senior Michael Robinson, who has played a variety of positions during his Penn State career. Robinson might not be a conventional drop-back passer -- he completes barely more than 50 percent of his passes -- but Welsh said he can still create headaches for opposing defenses.
"Robinson is not a quarterback that's going to be 25-for-33," Welsh said. "But he's a quarterback that can beat you. He made some great runs against Ohio State.
" Indeed, in Penn State's 17-10 upset of Ohio State, Robinson ran for 52 yards on 14 carries. Though he only threw for 78 yards on 11-of-20 passing, Welsh said Robinson did a good job of avoiding the turnovers that plagued him earlier in the season.
If Penn State's offense can follow that formula -- continue moving the ball while avoiding major mistakes -- then Welsh believes the Nittany Lions will be a force to be reckoned with.
The key to Paterno's club, Welsh said, is a dominating defense that ranks high nationally in rushing defense and other key categories. Not only did the Lions hold Ohio State to less than 100 yards rushing, but they also recorded five sacks and forced two turnovers.
"They don't have those imposing guys [on defense] that I've seen on some other teams," Welsh said. "They don't have those real big guys. But they're very quick, and they have a couple of good pass-rush guys, which helps. They're not as publicized as some others in the country -- like Ohio State's -- but they're awfully good."
Despite the victory against Ohio State, the Nittany Lions again are underdogs this week at Michigan, according to the Las Vegas oddsmakers.
But Welsh said that's probably more out of respect for the Wolverines' home-field advantage than it is a lack of confidence in Penn State.
"I think they've proved themselves now," Welsh said. "Whether they can keep it going ... because they've got to go to Michigan this week. It's going to be tough to win at Michigan."
Though defense will be the strength of this Penn State team, Welsh said he continues to be impressed by the evolution of the Lions' offense. Paterno might be the oldest coach in college football at age 78, but he has transformed his offense from mostly I-formation plays to a spread-option attack.
The change has been so dramatic that Welsh wonders if Paterno's staff was intentionally playing "vanilla" earlier in the season.
"Now, it's much more wide open," Welsh said. "I think they might have been laying in the weeds."
Welsh couldn't say the same for Ohio State. Though the Buckeyes have several talented players at the skill positions -- most notably sophomore Ted Ginn Jr. at receiver -- they haven't displayed the ability to get those players the ball.
"They have two great wideouts in Ginn and Santonio Holmes," Welsh said. "But they don't seem to be able to get the ball to them enough -- four or five touches or something like that. At least Penn State puts that Williams kid at tailback sometimes."
If Ohio State can correct those problems on offense, Welsh said they have the defense to beat just about any team in the country.
And he also expects Penn State to keep on improving. Though it might seem natural for a team to experience a letdown after an emotional victory, Welsh said he would be stunned to see the Nittany Lions come out flat against Michigan.
"His teams don't have letdowns," Welsh said of Paterno. "The really good teams he's had don't have letdowns."
NEXT WEEK....
 Extra with George Welsh - Florida State at Virginia
Photos courtesy of the Penn State University Athletics.
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